Bookies Election 2019
From general elections in the UK to the presidential race in the US, the bookmakers have a tough task in understanding public sentiment and using it to price up the various political markets that are available.
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It’s not like trading a football match or a horse race, where the factors leading up to the start are tangible, quantifiable and largely static.
In politics, the picture is changing all the time, and also the books don’t really have any material on voting intention to work with other than the polls, which history has shown have a habit of being completely wide of the mark.
All of which leads to egg on faces in the case of the most popular political betting markets, and since the start of 2015 alone the bookmakers have lost out by being completely unable to calculate their probabilities correctly.
So, if you are planning a bet on politics, don’t be swayed by the bookies’ odds….as these five calamities confirm.
UK General Election 2015 – Conservative Majority (12/1)
Back in 2015 it was David Cameron and Ed Miliband that went toe to toe, with the former dogged by sordid allegations of his antics with a pig while at university and the latter similarly plagued by pork with his inability to eat a bacon sandwich like a normal human being.
Ed Miliband tries to look normal while eating a bacon sandwich and failshttp://t.co/jnrxKRuVMbpic.twitter.com/t8ww2CSZwf
— The Independent (@Independent) 21 May 2014
The polls suggested that this hapless duo could not be separated, with a Populous survey taken the day before the ballot boxes opened suggesting the election could finish in an incredible tie.
The bookies listened, and no matter what happened during the polls they were comfortable that no majority would be won – making a hung parliament as short as 1/12 in their prices.
It was a decision that would set the tone for two years of odds-making incompetency to come as the Conservatives cantered to victory.
The Tories won 330 seats – a swing of more than 50 with Labour, to see them secure a working majority in the Commons.
2015 UK General Election Result
| Party | Leader | Seats | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | David Cameron | 330 (50.8%) | +24 |
| Labour Party | Ed Miliband | 232 (35.7%) | -26 |
| Liberal Democrats | Nick Clegg | 8 (1.2%) | -49 |
| Scottish Nationalist Party | Nicola Sturgeon | 56 (8.6%) | +50 |
| Other | – | 24 (3.7) | +1 |
Miliband resigned as Labour leader immediately, while the bookies licked their wounds after pricing a Conservative majority as wide as 12/1.
Labour Leadership Battle 2015 – Jeremy Corbyn (100/1)
With Miliband falling on his sword, Labour needed to appoint a leader to take them into the next four years prior to the scheduled election in 2019.
The bookies quickly installed Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper as favourites, simply because they were so well respected within the party.
The rank outsider was Jeremy Corbyn, an older candidate with socialist, almost Marxist principles. He only just scraped enough nominations to stand, as Labour chiefs felt they needed to have a more diverse range of candidates.
Starting out as a 100/1 no-hoper, Corbyn slowly began to mobilise left-leaning members of the party, and with a huge number of students signing up just to vote for him, Corbyn was soon an odds-on favourite.
In the end, he won 59.5% of the vote to secure a comfortable win, and leaving those who managed to back him at 100s to celebrate royally.
EU Referendum 2016 – Leave (3/1)
When David Cameron won the 2015 election with a majority, he was able to keep a manifesto pledge that he would put the UK’s membership of the European Union to a vote.
‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’
It was a simple question but one that drew a rather complicated response: in the end, the ‘Leave’ vote took just 52% of the poll but that was enough to start the ball rolling on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU….a process that is still going on to this day.
The bookies, once more, made a faux pas of their odds, making Remain a 1/4 favourite.
They weren’t helped by a low voter turnout of just 72%, with the narrative being that many people simply didn’t head to the polls because they did not see the Leave side getting more than half of the votes cast.
But they did, and the bookmakers were left to rue another odds-against defeat – this time at a price of 3/1.
US Presidential Election 2016 – Donald Trump (9/2)
One of the biggest political shocks of all time saw the business mogul Donald Trump bluster his way into the White House, and leave punters sensing the upset victory counting their cash on the 9/2 underdog.
It was a confusing election for most on the outside, with Hillary Clinton, the Democrat candidate set to replace Barack Obama as the President, falling foul of an FBI investigation into a private mail server she had used during campaigning.
Trump was not without controversies of his own, but he never attempted to cover them up and simply declared ‘fake news’ whenever somebody challenged him.
Bizarrely, Clinton won 2.7 million more votes than Trump at the polls, but the Republican won the majority of his in the Electoral College and was thus able to win the election despite losing the popular vote.
2016 United States Presidential Election Result
| Candidate | Party | Electoral Vote | Popular Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Republican | 304 (56.5%) | 62.98 million (46.1%) |
| Hillary Clinton | Democratic | 227 (42.2%) | 65.85 million (48.2%) |
Famously, Paddy Power had already paid out on a Clinton victory – costing them a reported $1.2 million in unnecessary losses.
UK General Election 2017 – Hung Parliament (7/1)
Completely misreading the will of the people, former Prime Minister Theresa May called a general election in 2017 to get a mandate from voters to force through her Brexit withdrawal plan.
Unfortunately, a large swathe of voters were not convinced, and the Tories lost the 17-seat majority that the party previously held in the Commons.
May went cap in hand to the DUP, forming an uneasy coalition to remain in power, but it was not enough for her to keep her job.
The bookies would have been fuming too: they had priced a hung parliament at 7/1 in the fifth major balls-up they had made in their political betting markets in the space of just two years.
It doesn’t feel like very long ago that I placed my bet on who the next Conservative Party leader would be after it became clear that it was over for Theresa May. Yet, here we are in the midst of political upheaval once again, and the British government has still not delivered Brexit.
The issue has become so contentious that it has forced an early General Election. Parliament has been in an unbreakable deadlock over Brexit for months, causing just about all Parliamentary business to come to a standstill, and with Boris Johnson failing to deliver on his “Brexit – Do or Die!” deadline at the end of October, a GE was perhaps inevitable.
If you’re confused by the state of British politics and are wondering why there’s an election and who the top British bookmakers favour to win, I’m going to talk you through all of it here. By the end, you’ll have as good a grasp as anyone does on what is going on, and some of the British political bets you could potentially make the election kicks off.
What Is Brexit & Why Is There a UK General Election?
I’m going to keep this short and simple. Most Brits can skip it, as you’re probably already sick to death of hearing about Brexit. It seems like this one political issue has taken over all public life here in Britain, and most of us have had enough of it already.
For those who aren’t aware, Brexit is the process of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. A slim 51.9% majority voted to leave in a referendum in June 2016. However, nobody seems to agree on what Brexit is. The sticking points are:
- Should we do a “clean break” Brexit and leave without a trade deal as
the Eurosceptics believe? - Should we make a trade deal which commits us to certain political
aspects of the EU but not others? This is the preferred path of moderate
Brexiters. - Should we admit this was all a terrible mistake and remain in the
European Union? If so, what is a fair and Democratic way to overturn the
original result?
In short, there’s no clear majority for any type of deal. Parliament is split into several factions which do not necessarily hold party lines. There are hard Brexiters who seem to loathe all things European, die-hard Remainers who will not back any sort of Brexit, and a patchwork quilt of opinions somewhere in the middle.
So, why a General Election now? Theresa May lost her majority in the 2017 General Election, and then her deal failed to pass Parliament three times, triggering a Conservative Party leadership contest in which Boris Johnson emerged as Prime Minister. Yet, Johnson himself failed to deliver Brexit by the end of October, despite stating that he would rather end up “Dead in a ditch” than ask the EU for yet another Brexit extension. He did just that this past week. And so we have arrived at another General Election to try to break the deadlock.
But will anything change? Let’s see what British bookmakers think about all of the possible outcomes in the UK General Election 2019.
What’s Likely to Happen In UK GE 2019?
Please note that any odds referred to below are valid as of 01/10/2019. Odds may change as time passes and political events unfold. Check out some British betting sites for the latest General Election odds.
British Politics Outright Betting Odds
In what would be a Groundhog Day type of nightmare for the British people, most British bookmakers believe that no party will secure a majority in the upcoming General Election. In other words, we may end up in roughly the same position as we are today – with a Hung Parliament.
Bet365 is offering odds of 4/5 on No Overall Majority. William Hill is offering odds of 5/6 for the same outcome. Paddy Power has priced this outcome at 10/11.
What a shambles that would be! I’m not sure the British trait of a stiff upper lip and almost infinite patience would hold if more of the same was to happen for the next few years, but let’s not make predictions. I actually think that I’m going to place a wager on exactly this outcome.
What about odds on other potential outcomes?
| Bet365 | William Hill | Paddy Power | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Majority | 6/5 | 6/5 | 5/6 |
| Labour Majority | 12/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 |
| Liberal Democrat Majority | 50/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 |
| Any Other Party Majority | 80/1 | N/A | N/A |
Why are the Conservative Party favourites despite failing to deliver Brexit since the referendum took place over three years ago?
That’s a complicated question. It’s not even certain that the British public still wants Brexit. Lots of polls show that the public has changed its mind and now favours remaining in the European Union.
| Field End Date | 13 May 2019 | 1 May 2019 | 18 February 2019 | 23 January 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Leave the EU | 42% | 40% | 38% | 38% |
| To Remain a Member of the EU | 44% | 44% | 48% | 45% |
| Would Not Vote | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| Don’t Know | 7% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
| Source:https://whatukthinks.org/ | ||||
The Conservative Party is best placed to win a majority because of the weakness of the other parties. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has taken a back seat during Brexit and has rankled many Labour leave voters, many of whom may vote for the single-issue Brexit Party to punish Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are pro-remain and have vowed to revoke Article 50 if they win a majority without a second referendum. However, the bookies believe that they have little chance of ousting the two biggest parties in most areas. It would be a true shocker if they did.
In short, the Conservatives are favourites because Labour is so weak. Whereas Corbyn enjoyed a groundswell of support during the 2017 GE thanks to his progressive policies and appeal with the youth, that may not hold during a GE which is dominated by one issue – Brexit.
What About the Long Shot?
It is possible that the bookies have this wrong. These are extraordinary times in British politics. Don’t be afraid to place a small long shot bet on an unlikely outcome. You just never know what might happen when the public is fed up and desperate for change. I intend to place a small bet of £10 on a Labour majority just in case.
How could Corbyn’s Labour possibly emerge with a majority? In a nutshell – the youth. His appeal in the last election was mostly with younger voters. They are more concerned with climate change, student debt, the survival of the NHS, and other issues which Labour addresses. Corbyn has promised a second referendum on Brexit if he is elected, which just might swing it for lots of pro-remain younger voters. With millions more young people turning 18 since the last GE, there’s a small chance that Labour will experience an unexpected victory. I
would like to emphasize the phrase small chance, but never count them out. Small chances are what long shot bets are all about, after all!
GE2019: Election Turnout Odds
Betting on the outright winner of the election is not your only option. You can also place a wager on what the election turnout will be. This is one of the most heated issues in recent British political history, so the turnout is expected to be fairly high.
Right now, the only UK bookmakers offering odds on election turnout is Betfred. Here are
the odds:
- 65-70% turnout – 5/4
- 60-65% turnout – 5/2
- 70-75% turnout – 7/2
- Under 60% – 8/1
- Over 75% – 12/1
| Electorate | Postal Votes | Turnout | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 39.3m | 18.2% | 69.3% | |
| South East | 6.5m | 17.8% | 71.4% | |
| West Midlands | 4.1m | 15.0% | 67.1% | |
| North West | 5.3m | 19.5% | 68.0% | |
| East Midlands | 3.4m | 18.2% | 69.4% | |
| London | 5.5m | 16.7% | 70.2% | |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 3.9m | 19.3% | 66.5% | |
| East | 4.4m | 17.1% | 69.9% | |
| South West | 4.2m | 18.9% | 72.1% | |
| North East | 1.9m | 26.6% | 66.1% | |
| Scotland | 4.0m | 19.4% | 66.8% | |
| Wales | 2.3m | 19.4% | 68.7% | |
| Northern Ireland | 1.2m | 1.9% | 65.6% | |
| UK | 46.8m | 18.0% | 69.0% | |
| Source:https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ | ||||
In 2017, the turnout was 69% across the UK. It looks like at least one bookie thinks it will be about the same. Does that make it more likely that we’ll end up with another hung parliament, or have people’s voting preferences changed? I suppose we’ll find out soon enough!
Who Will the Prime Minister Be After the Election?
Politics is a funny old thing, and even if no party manages to secure a majority, someone has to be Prime Minister when it’s all said and done. Some governments do this by forming coalitions with other parties. In fact, this is exactly what Theresa May did in 2017 when she lost her majority – she formed a government with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and carried on.
The only bookmaker currently offering odds on this is Betfred. It’s early days, though, so I’m going to hold off on making a bet on this exact outcome right now to see what other bookies offer later.
Boris Johnson is the runaway favourite for this particular bet. Here are Betfred’s current odds on each party leader:
| Boris Johnson | 1/4 |
| Jeremy Corbyn | 7/2 |
| Jo Swinson | 16/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 50/1 |
Bookies Election 2019 Presidential
Even if the Conservatives fail to get a majority, there’s always the possibility that they may form a government with the Brexit Party should they manage to win some seats. This outcome would be interesting, to say the least. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has made it clear that he’s open to a pact provided Johnson scraps his current deal and commits to a No Deal Brexit.
Let’s take a look at some of the odds on specific Brexit-related bets.
Brexit Bets
Bookies Odds Election 2019
As I said earlier, there is very little agreement on what Brexit should look like when it’s all said and done. There are still multiple possible scenarios that could play out. Here are the odds on some of them.
Article 50 to be Revoked Betting Odds
Revoking Article 50 would mean the end of Brexit. It would pull the legal mechanism by which the UK started the process of leaving and would signal its intention to stay in the EU. Only a few bookmakers are offering odds on whether the government will revoke Article 50 or not.
Revoking Article 50 is a fairly unlikely outcome. It would require either the Lib Dems to win or Labour to gain a strong majority followed by a second referendum in which remain wins. Going by the other odds above, the bookmakers do not seem to think either of those outcomes is very likely.
Bookies Odds Uk Election 2019
Brexit Rationing Betting Odds
There has been lots of speculation about how Brexit will affect the UK economy and the availability of various items. From people making jokes about Brits living on beans after Brexit to serious warnings by NHS doctors about medicine shortages, it’s not surprising that some bookmakers are offering odds on which items the government will ration first in 2019.
I should note that 2019 is drawing to a close and Brexit is unlikely to happen before the year ends. Therefore, it might be better to revisit these bets at the start of next year. Amidst all this Brexit doom and gloom, it’s good to see that some bookies have kept their sense of humour!
| Paddy Power | Betfair | |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel | 2/1 | 2/1 |
| Milk | 11/1 | 11/1 |
| Bread | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Red Wine | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Mars Bars | 150/1 | 150/1 |
Yes, there are odds on a shortage of Mars bars! That’s probably a good way to end this article. If you’re a British reader, don’t let Brexit get you down. It’ll all be over soon, one way or another, and in the meantime, you might as well find the silver lining by having a punt and trying to make some money amidst all the confusion and chaos.
There are lots of potentially lucrative bets here. I’m definitely with the bookies that no majority is the most likely outcome. What are you going to bet on in the British General Election 2019?
Please note: Politics are notoriously unpredictable and betting on politics always entails risk. The author has reported current odds from popular UK bookmakers which does not guarantee any particular outcome. Good luck!